AGP Executive Report

Mozambique Water Push: President Daniel Chapo launched the 10-year PROÁguaS plan, calling water a “sovereignty” asset and setting a goal to lift water supply coverage to about 75% while boosting rural sanitation; the government says it needs roughly $4.5bn to expand access and improve water management. Gas Revenue Watch: Mozambique expects about $76.8m this year from LNG exploration revenues, with part earmarked for a sovereign wealth fund and the rest for the state budget. Security Shake-Up: A district administrator in Quissanga, near Pemba, was arrested over alleged diversion of humanitarian aid—raising questions about shifting willingness inside Mozambique’s security structures to pursue politically sensitive cases. LNG Expansion: Eni is considering a third FLNG platform in the Rovuma area, after committing to its second platform Coral North. Humanitarian Aid: BGF and the SDA Church donated $500,000 in Manica for disaster relief, including boreholes, food hampers, school support and medical outreach. Regional Context: Qatar Airways plans to add Cape Town flights as it rebuilds routes after Iran-war airspace disruptions.

Anti-migrant violence in South Africa: Recent protests and attacks tied to anti-foreigner groups in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are again putting African migrants on edge, with commentators warning that unemployment and weak border control can’t justify intimidation or violence—and noting xenophobia’s long, deadly history since 2008. Mozambique security and governance: In Mozambique, the EU has extended its military training mission (EUMAM Moz) through year-end, while the police are calling for modernised training to better tackle crime, terrorism, corruption and road accidents. Water push: President Daniel Chapo launched a 10-year National Water Security Compact aiming to raise water access to 75% and sanitation to 60% by 2036, backed by about $4.59bn. Agriculture drive: Chapo also set a target to market 14.6m tons of farm output in the 2026 campaign, with reforms aimed at stronger bargaining power for producers. Regional sport: CAF confirmed AFCON 2027 qualifier pots—Ghana and Zambia in Pot 2, with Mozambique also listed there.

Mozambique Water Push: President Daniel Chapo launched the National Water Security Compact 2026–2036 in Maputo, aiming to lift clean water access to 75% and sanitation to 60% by 2036, with about $4.59bn to fund dams, reservoirs, monitoring stations, and upgrades for schools and health centres. Security and EU Support: The EU’s EUMAM Mozambique mission has been extended through year-end to keep building capacity for Mozambican quick-reaction forces in Cabo Delgado. Opposition Violence: In Gaza province, another Anamola member, Pedro Chauke, was shot dead at home and his car stolen, following the recent killing of Anamola coordinator Anselmo Vicente. Disaster Aid: A Zimbabwe-linked foundation and the SDA church donated $500,000 in Manica for boreholes, food hampers, school support, and medical outreach. Police Reform: Interior Minister Paulo Chachine called for modernized training for Mozambique’s police to better tackle crime, terrorism, corruption, and road accidents. Sports Note: Ghana and Mozambique were placed in Pot 2 for the 2027 AFCON qualifiers draw in Cairo.

World Cup/AFCON Seedings: Ghana and Cape Verde booked 2026 World Cup spots, but neither will be seeded among AFCON 2027 top teams after the qualifying draw in Cairo—highlighting how quickly fortunes can swing after poor AFCON runs. Mozambique Economy & Debt: Mozambique’s public debt climbed to about 17.1bn dollars (72.23% of GDP) over five years, with financing getting harder as debt servicing delays bite. Hidden Debts Legal Twist: Mozambique’s appeal in the “hidden debts” case moved forward after Privinvest’s UK appeal was dismissed for missing court conditions. Cabo Delgado Security: The Catholic Church again urged prayers as attacks in Cabo Delgado continue. Cahora Bassa & LAM: HCB approved buying 25.2% of Mozambique Airlines (LAM) as part of a wider state-led restructuring push. U17 Football: Mozambique’s U17 AFCON group match vs Mali has a Ghanaian referee appointed—another sign the tournament is ramping up.

Hidden Debts Court Setback: Mozambique’s appeal in the “hidden debts” case was dismissed after Privinvest failed to meet court conditions, keeping the focus on loans tied to Proindicus, Ematum and MAM and the state guarantees signed by former finance minister Manuel Chang. Public Finance Pressure: New figures show public debt topping 1.09 trillion meticais (about $17.1bn) over five years, reaching 72.23% of GDP, with financing getting harder as debt servicing delays bite. Airline Restructure Moves: Cahora Bassa approved buying 25.2% of Mozambique Airlines (LAM) as part of a broader state-led restructuring, alongside other public firms taking stakes and plans to stabilize operations. Youth Football: The U17 Lions open their CAF tournament today, aiming to kick-start qualification hopes after mixed friendlies in Morocco. Sports Officiating: CAF named Ghana’s referee Reginald Collins Amoah for Mozambique vs Mali in the U17 AFCON group stage. Industrialization Push: President Daniel Chapo urged deeper value-add in the cashew sector, arguing “it’s not enough to produce” without transforming into jobs and industry.

Healthcare Partnerships: Zimbabwe marks five years since CURE Children’s Hospital opened in Bulawayo, saying public-private collaboration has delivered specialised surgery to 5,000+ children with congenital conditions—helping them walk, speak and return to school. Football Transfer Story: Carlos Queiroz says Sir Alex Ferguson’s phone call—while Queiroz was in Mozambique—set him on the path to Manchester United, and now he’s starting a new chapter as Ghana’s Black Stars coach for the 2026 World Cup. Regional Diplomacy: African parliamentarians meeting in Nairobi urge a united continental stance on climate and methane talks, pushing frameworks and financing to match Africa’s development and food-security realities. Mozambique Justice: Mozambique’s National Prison Service reports Italian businessman Umberto Sartori has died in Maputo’s top security prison after arrest on drug trafficking, money laundering and forgery allegations. Mozambique Economy Watch: A separate report argues Mozambique is “faltering” rather than collapsing—debt and weak external balances are eroding living standards, with shocks from higher global fuel prices adding pressure.

Diplomacy & Trade: India is set to host the 2026 India-Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi (28–31 May), aiming to turn political and economic ties into fresh deals across security, digital, energy and industry, with a “New Delhi Declaration” expected at the end. Climate Push: African parliamentarians meeting in Nairobi say the continent must speak with one voice on climate and methane talks, demanding financing and rules that match Africa’s development and food-security realities. Mozambique in the spotlight: A Mozambican man in Johannesburg was sentenced to 15 years for theft and vandalism of essential infrastructure, with deportation to follow. Regional economy pressure: A new report argues decades of oil and gas output have failed to cut poverty in Nigeria and other producers, leaving many countries stuck with inequality and dependence. Energy & food risk: Coverage also flags how Gulf shipping and fertilizer disruptions are hitting Africa’s most vulnerable farmers.

Telecom Push: Vodacom is stepping up smartphone financing for prepaid users with its Easy2Own plan—small daily or weekly payments, a locked phone if you miss instalments, and full unlock after a year—aimed at boosting data use and turning operators into broader digital-service providers. Competition Watch: PPC is warning of “dumping” risk after South Africa’s regulator approved West China Cement’s purchase of AfriSam, arguing production could shift to Mozambique and flood local markets with cheaper imports. Tech & Capital Markets: Avantis Technologies unveiled a locally built laptop and is targeting listings on VFEX (aiming for October) and a secondary route to Tel Aviv. Mozambique Economy: A new analysis says the country isn’t in crisis mode like hyperinflation, but key indicators have steadily eroded, with poverty and weak job prospects worsening. Maritime Cooperation: India’s IOS Sagar (Sunayna) docked in Colombo with a 16-nation crew, underscoring shared security concerns across the Indian Ocean.

Cabo Delgado Pressure: Mozambique’s Catholic bishops warn insecurity is spreading beyond Cabo Delgado as renewed Islamist attacks target civilians, churches and roads—urging authorities to act decisively and calling for peace and reconciliation. Prison Service Update: In Maputo, SERNAP says Italian businessman Umberto Sartori—accused of drug trafficking, money laundering and forgery—died in custody at Maputo Top Security prison after refusing to eat; technical investigations are ongoing. Energy & Trade: South Africa expects about R18.8bn from electricity exports to eight neighbours including Mozambique, as Eskom’s generation improves. Regional Connectivity: Mozambique’s Prime Minister Benvinda Levi swore in new state-holding and hydrocarbons leaders, pushing transparency and reforms to cut fiscal risk. Finance & Payments: Mastercard expansion into Mozambique highlights the push for digital payments and formal financial access. Maritime Cooperation: India’s multinational naval ship IOS Sagar (Sunayna) is in Colombo as part of “One Ocean, One Mission.”

Cabo Delgado Update: Insurgent attacks are reported again across multiple districts—Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, Nangade, Mueda, Meluco, Ancuabe and Chiúre—hitting roads, villages, artisanal mining sites and Catholic churches, with the pattern pointing more to intimidation and propaganda than a full territorial push. Mozambique Security & Support: The EU has extended EUMAM MOZ for six more months to keep building FADM quick-reaction capacity against Islamist terrorism. Mozambique Economy: FDI inflows jumped 60.2% to $5.6bn in 2025, led by major projects in the extractives sector, especially Rovuma Basin gas. Food & Prices: Mozambique’s urban prices rose 4.41% in April, while the government is urged to boost investment in food fortification to fight micronutrient deficiencies. Regional Trade: DP World says it remains bullish on Africa despite inflation pressures from the Iran-linked fuel shock. Humanitarian Funding: The US pledged an extra $1.8bn for OCHA’s humanitarian “reset” pooled funds and life-saving aid.

Mozambique LNG & security: Mozambique’s EU-backed training mission EUMAM MOZ has had its mandate extended for six more months to keep building FADM capacity against Islamist insurgents in Cabo Delgado. Mozambique economy: Foreign direct investment jumped 60.2% to $5.6bn in 2025, led by major gas projects in the Rovuma Basin, while urban prices rose 4.41% in April—food and non-alcoholic drinks were among the biggest movers. Food resilience: The economy ministry says Mozambique must boost spending on food fortification to cut micronutrient gaps, pointing to fortified staples already produced at scale. Regional shock: South Africa declared a national disaster after deadly flooding and extreme weather, with damage to thousands of informal homes and fears for transport and agriculture. South Africa xenophobia fallout: Ghana moves to repatriate about 300 citizens from South Africa amid renewed anti-foreigner violence, as the debate over government response intensifies. Trade & logistics: Grindrod secured a rail access agreement with Transnet’s rail infrastructure unit, aiming to start Open Access Rail operations next year via the Mpumalanga–Maputo corridor.

Oil Shock Watch: Oil prices are still wobbling after the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but Brent has eased to around $100 as global inventories and China’s reserve drawdown soften the blow—though the longer the standoff drags on, the more pressure returns. Food–Fertiliser Fallout: With Hormuz disruption also hitting fertiliser flows, farmers across Africa face rising costs and shortages, raising fresh food-crisis fears. Mozambique Energy & Money: Mozambique says FDI jumped to $5.6bn in 2025, driven mainly by extractives and Rovuma gas activity, while a new look at the LNG model warns the country’s development strategy may be outpacing the fiscal payoff. Health Tech Push: VillageReach and Qure.ai are rolling out AI-enabled pandemic preparedness in Mozambique, aiming to turn community reports into faster early warnings. Regional Security Diplomacy: Mozambique’s President Chapo points to Uganda’s Cabo Delgado counter-terror experience as a guide, as bilateral ties deepen. South Africa Rail Reform: Transnet is “Uberising” rail by opening access routes to private operators, signaling a more competitive rail marketplace.

ANC Under Pressure: ANC leaders are meeting in Cape Town as President Cyril Ramaphosa faces fresh fallout from the Phala Phala Constitutional Court ruling; Ramaphosa says he committed no crime and won’t resign, while ANC veteran Matthews Phosa warns of reputational damage if the party mishandles it. Courtroom Corruption Fight: Suspended SAPS National Commissioner Fannie Masemola appeared in court with alleged cartel boss Vusimuzi “Cat” Matlala over a multi-million rand tender case; the matter is postponed to June 26. Mozambique Health Tech: VillageReach and Qure.ai partnered to embed AI into Mozambique’s health platforms, aiming to spot outbreaks earlier using community reports. Mozambique Security Links: President Daniel Chapo told Uganda Mozambique can learn from Uganda’s experience in eradicating Islamist terrorism in Cabo Delgado. Energy Push: Eskom and Energy Vault signed a deal to potentially deploy 25MW/100MWh grid-scale gravity storage at Hendrina, with a framework for long-duration projects across SADC. Child Labour Warning: Mozambique says 2.4 million minors have been involved in child labour, with new risks emerging through internet-based exploitation.

Foot-and-Mouth Push: South Africa’s Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen says another 2 million FMD vaccine doses have arrived from Turkey, bringing imports to 8 million since late February, with 5 million more expected soon and a target of vaccinating 80% of the herd by end-December 2026. Mozambique Security: Police say drug trafficking is expanding alongside addiction concerns, after arrests at Maputo airport linked suspects to the Sinaloa Cartel and plans to set up operations in Maputo province. Terror Watch: The US flags West Africa, the Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin and Mozambique as key fronts in its 2026 counterterrorism strategy, warning ISIS remnants have dispersed across fragile areas. Regional Politics: Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni was sworn in for a seventh term, with regional leaders attending. Water Tech: Limpopo basin states are rolling out AI tools to manage transboundary water across Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Energy Finance: Eni is exploring LNG deals backed by its floating assets, seeking at least €1bn via infrastructure funds.

Paris Terror Plot: A Tunisian man arrested in France is accused of planning a violent attack inspired by jihadism, with reports saying he sought to target the Louvre and the Jewish community in Paris’s 16th arrondissement. Mozambique Security & Politics: In Manica, Anamola leader Venancio Mondlane called for three days of national mourning after the assassination of his party coordinator, Anselmo Vicente, shot dead in Chimoio. LNG & Investment: Italy’s Eni is exploring a potential LNG-backed deal to raise funds from major investment firms, drawing on its Mozambique and Congo floating LNG experience. Extreme Weather: South Africa declared a natural disaster after flooding and storms killed at least 10 people, hitting informal settlements hardest. Regional Counterterrorism: The US says ISIS remnants have regrouped across Africa, naming Mozambique among renewed threat areas, alongside Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin. Finance & Inclusion in Mozambique: Mastercard and Letshego launched a debit card in Mozambique, pushing wider access to formal digital payments.

Counterterror Crackdown: France arrested a 27-year-old Tunisian man suspected of plotting a jihad-inspired attack in Paris, with reports saying he considered the Louvre and targeting the Jewish community; he’s in pre-trial detention and investigators say he also looked at joining ISIS in Syria or Mozambique. Mozambique & Security: In Mozambique, political violence keeps echoing—police are investigating the killing of Anamola coordinator Anselmo Abílio in Chimoio, with the usual accusations and unanswered questions. South Africa Migration Tensions: South Africa faces fresh pressure to probe who funds anti-migrant protests, as Ramaphosa vows stricter enforcement and warns against opportunists using economic frustration. Mozambique Finance & Payments: Mastercard and Letshego launched a Mozambique debit card to push more people into formal digital payments. Energy & Industry: Investors are watching Africa’s energy projects more closely, but execution and regulation remain the make-or-break; meanwhile, Vodacom lifted its Vision 2030 customer targets after strong growth. Science & Earth: Zambia’s Kafue Rift hot springs may be hinting at a new tectonic boundary forming.